As the 2025 tennis calendar tilts toward its decisive months, the season’s narrative has narrowed from a wide field of contenders to a compact, high-stakes sprint. The Asian swing, headlined by the China Open in Beijing and the Rolex Shanghai Masters, now sits centre stage, offering the last rich seams of points for players punching for Turin and Riyadh. What remains is less a marathon than a cage match: a series of tournaments where every match can reshape year-end honours, qualification lists and the fight for the No. 1 ranking.
What’s left on the calendar
China Open (Beijing) : WTA 1000 & ATP 500
The Asian swing reaches full stride with the China Open in Beijing (September 24 – October 5), a dual event that stands as one of the most decisive stops of the late season. For the WTA, it is the penultimate 1000 of the year, offering a massive points swing that could reshape the Race to Riyadh. The situation will be interesting for all players, especially since Aryna Sabalenka has withdrawn from the event. On the ATP side, it carries the weight of a 500-level crown, a prize often decisive for those clinging to the edges of the Turin cutoff. Staged at the National Tennis Center, Beijing serves as the natural launchpad into the autumn run-in, where every match begins to feel like a qualifying final.
Rolex Shanghai Masters & Japan Open
Barely a pause separates Beijing from the Rolex Shanghai Masters (October 1–12), where a 1,000-point windfall awaits and the margins between qualification and elimination shrink further. The event traditionally draws one of the deepest fields outside the Slams, and this year is no exception, with established names and rising stars alike circling Shanghai as their golden ticket to Turin. In parallel, the Japan Open in Tokyo (ATP 500) provides another critical stop, particularly for players positioned between 6th and 12th in the Race, where every extra round could be decisive.
Wuhan & Beyond — The WTA’s Final Sprint
For the women, the road from Beijing leads directly to the Wuhan Open (October 6–12), a newly resurgent stop on the calendar that adds a further 1000 points into play. Flanking it are Tokyo and Ningbo, both 500-level tournaments that sharpen the fight for the last Finals berths. With Riyadh looming just weeks later (November 1-8), these events will effectively determine which eight women can transform consistency into a season-ending crown.
Paris, Turin, Riyadh — the closing acts
The ATP finishes its Masters 1000 run with Paris-Bercy (October 27 – November 2), a tournament long known for late-season shocks and qualification dramas. It is the final gateway before the Nitto ATP Finals in Turin (November 9–16), where only the season’s eight most consistent performers will step into the spotlight.
The immediate storylines
1) The WTA No. 1 fight
Aryna Sabalenka enters this final phase with a substantial points cushion atop the Race to the WTA Finals. The WTA’s published leaders show Sabalenka sitting at roughly 11,225 points, with Iga Świątek trailing in second at about 8,433. A gap that is large but not mathematically insurmountable given two WTA 1000 events and the remaining 500s. Swiatek’s recent form (a gritty title run in Seoul that extended her season trophy haul) keeps her in the conversation and demonstrates that she can still pile up big points on hard courts. But analysts and ranking watchers note the arithmetic: Sabalenka’s lead, built across Grand Slams and WTA 1000 successes earlier in the season, gives her superior insurance heading into the Asian swing. Expect Swiatek to contest Beijing and any available WTA 500s aggressively; her path back to the top requires both consistency and a high-value run in the 1,000-point events.
2) Race to the WTA Finals
Beyond the top two, the list of players fighting for the six remaining Riyadh slots is still sizeable. The WTA’s leaders document both established stars and late-season improvers jockeying for place; the Asia events, each with heavy point allocations, will decide multiple berths. Given the WTA’s points distribution and the concentration of remaining tournaments, the next three weeks are where players move from “hoping” to “qualified.” There are some very good players on the verge of qualifying (Gauff, Anisimova, Keys, Pegula, Andreeva, Rybakina and Paolini). While Gauff and Anisimova seem certain to qualify, the 4th and 10th places are only separated by around 1,800 points, a gap that can be closed with two WTA 1000 events and several 500-level events still to play.
3) ATP Race to Turin
On the men’s side, the Race to Turin has been a season of ebb and flow. Of course Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner have established a huge distance at the summit, but a clutch Shanghai week can rearrange the order beneath them. The live ATP Race page shows that outside of the very top, margins are tight; an ATP Masters 1000 title in Shanghai can vault a player dozens of places, while a good run in Beijing (an ATP 500) can consolidate a borderline finalist’s credentials. Whether it’s Djokovic, Zverev, Shelton, Fritz, Musetti or de Minaur, everything is still up for grabs for them. The players mentioned above are separated by just 1,000 points! With Turin slated for mid-November, players with fewer tournaments remaining will be forced to pick their spots carefully.
Tactical implications for players and coaches
For top seeds: the calculus is preservation versus aggression. A player with a near-guaranteed Finals place may elect a lighter schedule to protect fitness and fine-tune practice; those on the cusp must play full bore, often at the cost of recovery. The presence of marquee names (Djokovic’s confirmed entry to Shanghai is a reminder) also changes draw dynamics, forcing contenders to prepare for higher-intensity opponents earlier than they might expect.
For borderline contenders: the rule is “go for the points.” Masters 1000 and WTA 1000 events are disproportionately decisive; quarterfinals, semis and a title can rearrange the Race table dramatically. For those players, scheduling is aggressive: enter Beijing, then choose Shanghai or other 500/250 level events that maximise opportunity and fit the body’s recovery windows.
For veterans and comeback narratives: late-season tournaments are a chance to salvage a campaign or to build momentum into the Finals and even into the following season. Expect names with historical success in Asia to use these weeks as launchpads, both for points and fan engagement.
Players to watch in the next three weeks
- Iga Swiatek: chasing not just Finals qualification but the No. 1 spot, her recent winning form on hard courts makes her a live threat in Beijing and beyond.
- Coco Gauff / Amanda Anisimova / Madison Keys / Jessica Pegula / Mirra Andreeva / Elena Rybakina / Jasmine Paolini: among the pack positioned to capitalise if either Sabalenka or Swiatek falter, they will be measuring their own Beijing and late swing campaigns closely and will fight for every possible point ahead of the Finals in Riyadh.
- Novak Djokovic / Alexander Zverev / Ben Shelton / Taylor Fritz / Lorenzo Musetti / Alex de Minaur: Shanghai and Beijing are key tests. Djokovic’s entry into Shanghai adds another variable to the Masters 1000 equation. The ATP Race is still receptive to a late surge from those positioned between places 6–10.
The wider narrative: beyond single trophies
What makes this terminal phase compelling is the multiplicity of stakes. Tournaments are no longer isolated prizes, they are levers that tilt year-end honours, seeding for the next season and (critically for sponsors and federations) player marketability. For journalists, the storylines multiply: an upset in Beijing might not merely be a headline, it could be the headline that qualifies a first-time Finals entrant or denies a perennial contender a last hurrah.
From a fan’s perspective, too, the Asian swing compresses drama. Matches which in June would have been interesting now have season-defining weight. For players, the weeks ahead are the modern equivalent of a final exam: pass, and your ticket to Turin or Riyadh and the financial and legacy bonuses they carry are secured. Fail, and the calendar is a long, regretful winter.
What to expect in the immediate term
- Intense scheduling and heavy courtsmanship: Beijing’s combined format followed by Shanghai’s deep Masters draw forces players to sustain match sharpness across back-to-back high-pressure events. Expect a few surprise withdrawals and tactical withdrawals from players protecting chronic niggles.
- Rank swings among the fringes: players ranked just outside the top eight in the Race columns will be the headline movers, both upward surges and sudden falls remain plausible. The ATP and WTA Race pages demonstrate how tightly packed those mid-tier spots are.
Final verdict: the season is still alive
The practical truth is simple: Sabalenka holds a certain lead in the WTA Race which will certainly become much shorter, and the ATP Race is volatile but concentrated among a handful of elite names who have already accrued significant margins. Yet professional tennis is built on late-season theatre. With WTA 1000 and ATP 1000 events pending, the arithmetic still allows for surprises. Swiatek’s pursuit of the top spot is the headline subplot, a compelling ‘what if’ that will determine whether 2025 closes as a Sabalenka coronation or as a late-season reversal. Either way, the next three weeks of Beijing and Shanghai, and the run-up to Riyadh and Turin, will define careers and the 2025 ledger.